A news article from the Wall Street Journal; states that a new report from Moody's Economy.com; predicts that Home Prices will bottom out in the 4th Quarter of this year.
It cites signs that home sales are stabilizing as people snap up bargains on foreclosures, a decline in the supply of unsold homes in many areas and expectations of moves by the Obama administration "that will help place a floor under the housing downturn."
While some of the hardest hit areas will take into 2010 or even 2011 to stabilize; much of the country will hit bottom. I believe in parts of the Washington DC market; we are already seeing the bottom. Some counties, such as Prince William County in Virginia, is seeing a large increase in transactions. The 4th Quarter numbers show more homes sold each month, since 2004. The prices are down - the transactions are up.
This is mostly because many of these Short Sales and Foreclosures are being snapped up. The banks have found the bottom and many of these homes are getting multiple offers.
When we look at Arlington County, or Washington DC; we don't see those numbers - yet.
The article goes on to say;
But some areas will be hit much harder. For instance, the Naples-Marco Island, Fla., area is expected to bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2010 with prices 70% below the peak. The report projects that peak-to-trough declines for metro areas will be 66% in Miami, Fla., 63% in Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif., 58% in Phoenix, 56% in Las Vegas, 53% in Los Angeles, 38% in Washington and 33% in New York. Within those metro areas, different neighborhoods are likely to show very divergent performances; the most desirable areas near good schools and jobs are faring much better than other places.
Washington DC is clearly one of those areas that have very different numbers by neighborhood and area. You have to realize that the "Washington DC Metro Area"; includes a very large area - 5 Counties in 2 States and the District of Columbia. These areas are as different in terms of employment, schools, traffic, etc; as can be. They will recover at different times; at different paces. Some of these areas haven't even lost more than a couple of percent of value - if any.
So will Prices "Bottom Out Nationally" ? I think in many areas - the answer is yes. Of course things like Interest Rates staying low and employment opportunities becoming more favorable are key.
Call James for all your Real Estate needs and questions; servicing Virginia, Maryland and the GreaterWashington DC area. Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Chevy Chase
5028 Wisconsin Ave NW Suite 100
Washington DC 20016
202-351-5800 Main Office
Licensed in DC,MD,VA
